Bank and Country Risk Analysis raises risk assessment training to a new level. Providing an authoritative self study training course, Bank and Country Risk Analysis takes you through the analytical process and evaluates the various models to do this.
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Bank and country risk, understanding it and assessing it, quantitatively and qualitatively, has attained an importance for bankers, regulators and investors that has increased dramatically over the years. Global turmoil and the collapse of individual country's economies emphasises the need to understand risk assessment.
This course is divided into 4 modules covering:
Bank Qualititative Risk Analysis: analysing qualitative and subjective aspects such as management, banking regulation and supervision, credit limits, methodologies of the ratings agencies, understanding why banks fail.
Bank Financial Risk Analysis: analysing bank financial statements, financial ratio analysis peer group comparisons, inter country comparisons, identifying "creative accounting" practises, investment banking analysis, using PC based analytical tools.
Coutry Risk Analysis: introduction to country risk; factual background; factors in country risk analysis; definitions and discussion of transaction, economic, political, social, commercial, and financial risk.
Country Risk Modelling: developing short and medium term risk models; alternative models, discussions of existing models, exercises, building your own model, identifying and managing early warning signals.
2. Different types of banks and their risk profile 2.1. What do banks do? How do they earn their money? 2.2. Different types of banks and their revenue structures 2.3. Chapter Quiz
3. The macroeconomic environment 3.1. Banking system and industry risks 3.2. Industry competition and its impact on banks 3.3. Chapter Quiz
4. Primary causes of bank failure 4.1. Types of Failures 4.2. Warning signals in predicting bank failure 4.3. Chapter Quiz
5. The analytical framework 5.1. Capital 5.2. Asset quality 5.3. Management 5.4. Earnings 5.5. Liquidity (liability management) 5.6. Chapter Quiz
6. How the rating agencies analyse bank risk 6.1. What is a rating? 6.2. Rating scale comparisons 6.3. Standard & Poor’s ratings 6.4. Moody’s Bank Financial Strength Ratings 6.5. Fitch-IBCA performance and legal ratings 6.6. Thomson performance ratings 6.7. Chapter Quiz
7. The regulatory framework 7.1 Capital Adequacy and International Convergence 7.2 Banking system: structure, governing law, and regulations 7.3 Banking supervision 7.4 Chapter Quiz
8. Risk Management 8.1 Generally Accepted Risk Principles 8.2 Derivatives and market risk 8.3 Managing Bank Limits 8.4 Chapter Quiz
9. Bank of England Annexes on Capital Adequacy 9.1 Definition of capital 9.2 Risk weight categories: on-balance-sheet 9.3 Credit conversion factors for off-balance-sheet risk 9.4 Interest and foreign exchange rate related instruments 9.5 Members associated with IMF borrowing arrangements. 9.6 UK regional governments and local authorities 9.7 Multilateral development banks
10. Answers to Quizzes
Section 2. Bank Financial Risk Analysis
1. Executive Summary
2. The analytical framework 2.1. Introduction 2.2. Sources of information on banks
4. Understanding the bank’s balance sheet 4.1. The grand tour 4.2. Balance sheet 4.3. Assets 4.4. Liabilities 4.5. Contingent liabilities 4.6. Income statement 4.7. Chapter Quiz
5. Bankscope Spreadsheet Analysis 5.1. Banco Safra SA
6. Bankscope Ratios and Ratio Analysis 6.1. Lines of the Bankscope global format 6.2. Financial ratio analysis 6.3. The Bankscope ratios 6.4. Chapter Quiz
7. Bank Peer Group Analysis 7.1. Issues and Perspectives 7.2. Chapter Quiz
8. Problems with inter-country comparisons 8.1. Local versus international accounting standards 8.2. Inflation accounting 8.3. Creative accounting and ratio manipulation 8.4. International Case Study Examples 8.5. Chapter Quiz
9. Investment Banking Risk Analysis 9.1. Investment banking - introduction 9.2. Key activities of investment banking 9.3. The key risks 9.4. Risk profile of investment banks 9.5. Broking is a competitive business 9.6. Derivatives trading and AAA subsidiaries 9.7. Holding companies and double leverage 9.8. The regulation of investment banks 9.9. Financial analysis of investment banks 9.10. Chapter Quiz
10. Answers to Quizzes
Section 3. Country Risk Analysis
1. Executive Summary
2. Introduction 2.1. Definition of country risk 2.2. Types of countries 2.3. History 2.4. Country risk assessment 2.5. Chapter Quiz
3. Introduction to Country Risk 3.1. Leading economic indicators of some countries 3.2. Chapter Quiz
4. Introduction to political risk 4.1. What is political risk? 4.2. Time dimension 4.3. Methodologies 4.4.. Example of a political score sheet 4.5. Regulations concerning country risk 4.6. Chapter Quiz
5. External Country Risk Assessments 5.1. Euromoney country risk method 5.2. Institutional Investor's country credit rating 5.3. The BERI index 5.4. International Country Risk Guide 5.5. Frost & Sullivan 5.6. Chapter Quiz
6. Evaluating Country Classification Systems 6.1. Country classification system and limits framework 6.2. Country risk category classification criteria 6.3. Country risk classification criteria: definitions and notes 6.4. Implementation 6.5. Responses to risk 6.6. Portfolio approach 6.7. Chapter Quiz
7. Sources of Information 7.1. Financial press 7.2. The Internet 7.3. Suggested readings
8. Answers to Quizzes
Section 4. Country Risk Modelling
1. Executive Summary
3. Building a Country Risk Model 3.1. How to make comparisons between indicators? 3.2. The link between different scores 3.3. The link between a credit score and a country limit 3.4. Typical short term model 3.5. Typical medium term model 3.6. Some alternative models 3.7. Early warning signals 3.8. Early warning systems 3.9. Chapter Quiz
4. The Royal Bank Of Canada Model 4.1. Introduction 4.2. RBC’s country risk analysis model 4.3. Chapter Quiz
5. Ratings 5.1. What is a rating? 5.2. The development of ratings 5.3. Bond ratings 5.4. Commercial paper ratings 5.5. Sovereign ratings 5.6. Supranational ratings
6. Standard & Poor’s Sovereign Ratings Process 6.1. Introduction 6.2. Political risk 6.3. Economic risk 6.4. S&P’s sovereign ratings profile 6.5. S&P’s sovereign rating data requirements 6.6. Chapter Quiz